Jakarta, hitclubapk3 Indonesia
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Latest research
BRI
Danareksa Sekuritas took a picture of the direction
economy
increasingly solid national level in 2026.
Research reveals that the Indonesian economy will be supported by two main engines;consumption that remains resilient and investment that continues to expand economic capacity.
The combination of the two is believed to be the key to pushing growth above 5 percent on a sustainable basis – a level that is crucial for attracting long-term foreign capital flows.
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For nearly two decades, average household consumption accounted for 57 percent of total GDP.Even when the economy was hit by global shocks, consumption continued to grow steadily in the range of 5 percent-6 percent.
“The power of consumption is the anchor for Indonesia’s growth,” wrote the BRI Danareksa research team.
However, the economic structure is now entering a new phase.The consumption share is slowly decreasing, while the investment contribution is increasing.This marks a shift towards a more productive and long-term oriented economic model.
Investment Becomes a Second Machine: Slow, But Long Lasting
In contrast to consumption which has a quick effect, investment has a layered and long-lasting effect.
Based on the fiscal model analyzed by this research, a 1 percentage point increase in investment only has a 0.1 point impact on GDP in the first quarter, but the effect peaks after 7-8 quarters and lasts more than three years.
“Investment does not provide an instant jump, but it builds the foundation for long-term growth,” wrote the report.
This is in line with the Jokowi era policy direction which focuses on infrastructure, downstreaming and FDI diversification – building new manufacturing bases, including in the EV and battery ecosystem.
Free Nutritious Meal Program Becomes New Lighter for 2026
One program that is said to be a potential growth catalyst is Free Nutritious Meals (MBG).BRI Danareksa research assesses that this program has two positive effects at once:
1. Direct consumption effect – reduces daily household shopping burden.
2. Long term effects – improving the quality of human resources through better nutrition.
However, the research also provides an important note, “The risk of inflation could arise if food supply is unable to keep up with the surge in demand.”
Even though domestic fundamentals are strong, Indonesian financial market volatility is still influenced by the Fed’s policies.The probability of a December 2025 US rate cut falls to 44 percent, making global yields and portfolio capital flows more volatile.
The rupiah also weakened slightly by 0.11 percent to IDR 16,704 per dollar.Meanwhile, Indonesia’s CDS fell to 75 bps, indicating that risk perceptions remained stable.
This research confirms that Indonesia is now in a strategic phase, where consumption still needs to be maintained for social stability and sustainable demand, and investment must continue to be encouraged to expand future economic capacity.
“Maintaining a balance between short-term support and long-term priorities is the key to maintaining growth momentum,” wrote BRI Danareksa.
With a solid consumption foundation, increasing investment flows, a prospective MBG program, and structural reforms already underway, 2026 has the potential to be the year when Indonesia’s two growth engines accelerate simultaneously, faster, healthier, and more productive.
(team)
