Research: RI GDP Passes Lowest Point, Ready to Grow 5.2 Percent in 2026

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Research
Macquarie Capital
Indonesia said
economy
Indonesia will grow 5.2 percent in 2026.
The research stated that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) had passed its lowest point in the third quarter.The Indonesian economy is considered to be preparing to grow again starting this quarter.
“We project gradual macro improvements driven by increased (government) fiscal spending, higher consumption and investment encouragement,” said Macquarie Capital Indonesia economist Ari Jahja in a written statement, Wednesday (19/11).
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AriĀ admitted that this research’s economic growth projections were indeed more conservative than market expectations.However, he said this figure showed strong fundamental stability.
“We are observing signs of improvement in the macroeconomy and government spending seen so far in the fourth quarter,” he said.
Through this research, Macquarie Capital Indonesia also recorded increasing investor optimism towards the Indonesian economy under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto.
Improving policy execution and continuing structural reforms are key factors in maintaining investor confidence.
From the stock market side, Macquarie assesses that MSCI Indonesia’s valuation is still at a reasonable and competitive level in the region.
“The MSCI Indonesia index valuation is still considered reasonable, and we anticipate Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth of around 10 percent in 2026. We prefer shares that show operational improvements, regardless of overall macroeconomic conditions,” said Ari.
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s economic growth will reach 5.04 percent in the third quarter of 2025.
BPS Deputy for Balance Sheets and Statistical Analysis Moh Edy Mahmud reported that the Indonesian economy based on the size of gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2025 at current prices was IDR 6,060 trillion.Meanwhile, GDP at constant prices is IDR 3,444.8 trillion.
“So Indonesia’s growth in the third quarter of 2025 when compared to the third quarter of 2024 or yoy growth is 5.04 percent,” he said in a press conference at the BPS office, Central Jakarta, Wednesday (5/11).
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